1. Tom Brady, NE

Raise your hand if Tom Brady burnt you last year.  Put those fingers down.   One year after a record-setting 50 TD performance, Brady went down in the first game of ‘08 with a torn ACL and MCL.  So far, all signs point to a full recovery.  The Pats traded Matt Cassel and Brady has been practicing without restrictions.  New England may utilize a few more conservative plays to help “protect” Brady more, but they will still be an attacking offense that gives him a shot at 30+ TDs.

2. Drew Brees, NO

Drew Brees has steadily increased his TD and passing yard totals since 2005 and almost broke Dan Marino’s single season yardage record last season.  Unlike his receivers, he’s been durable, playing all 16 games in each of the past 4 years.  Both Lance Moore and Marques Colston had offseason knee surgeries, but you get the feeling that Sean Payton will continue to air it out no matter who’s on the receiving end.

3. Peyton Manning, IND

The fantasy Rock of Gibraltar made owners a little nervous last year after undergoing two off season knee surgeries. The changes in Colts coaching staff may be a little troublesome, but Tom Moore and Howard Mudd will be allowed to stay on as unrestricted consultants, so the post-Dungy era should be a seamless transition.

4. Aaron Rodgers, GB

Rodgers finally got his shot to take over as the Packers field general and he didn’t disappoint.  He threw for 4038 yards and 28 TDs along with 4 rushing touchdowns.  He was one of the four QBs to total 30+ touchdowns and ranked 4^th in passing yardage making him one the most valuable fantasy quarterbacks in 2008.  You may not get your hands on one of the big names, but Rodgers has the ability to perform as a top 3 QB.

5. Philip Rivers, SD

San Diego’s transition to a pass-heavy offense last year resulted in career-high totals for Rivers.  The 4009 passing yards and 34 TDs vaulted his fantasy status to a top-tier quarterback.  Asking Rivers to repeat another 30 TD effort is a lofty expectation.  He threw for 43 total touchdowns in 2006 & 2007, so be happy with a 25-28 mark.

6. Tony Romo, DAL

Tony Romo took a large step backward in production last season.  He missed 3 games due to a finger injury and never seemed to be in sync. Terrell Owens has been jettisoned, but Romo relies on Jason Witten more than anyone and Roy Williams is a decent wideout threat. 

7. Donovan McNabb, PHI

McNabb displayed a fantasy renaissance last year throwing for a career-high 3916 yards and 23 TDs, his highest total since 2004.  The Eagles love to throw the ball and there’s no reason to think that 2009 will be any different.  But, owners have to keep their expectations in check.  Last year was the first time McNabb played all 16 games since 2003 and he’s thrown 20 + TDs four times in his 10-year career.

8. Kurt Warner, ARI

Kurt Warner turned in his first 16 game season since 1999 and led the Cardinals to the Super Bowl.  His 38-year-old frame and subsequent injury issues will continue to be a concern for potential Warner owners.  Pass-happy OC Todd Haley is no longer in town, but Arizona will remain a pass-first offense and he still has the best wide receiver tandem in the game.

9. Jay Cutler, CHI

Cutler forced his way out of Denver after becoming miffed at new coach Josh McDaniels’ flirtation with Matt Cassel.  Cutler lands in Chicago giving the Bears the franchise quarterback they have sought after for years.  His receivers aren’t as gifted as the Broncos wideouts and Cutler led the league in interceptions, so he’ll have some work to do in order to continue his development as a top-tier fantasy quarterback.

10. Carson Palmer, CIN

Carson Palmer’s 2008 campaign was cut short when he suffered a season-ending elbow injury in Week 5  He wasn’t off to the best of starts throwing 3 TDs and 4 Interceptions through the first 5 games.  Even more disturbing was the 24-20 TD/INT ratio he finished with in 2007.  Palmer will be without TJ Houshmandzadeh, but he now has Laveranues Coles to complement the ever-volatile Chad Ochocinco.