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SLEEPER ANALYSIS

It has become a staple of most fantasy publications to contain the obligatory “Sleeper Section.”  But, if owners have the same players on their radar, are those players truly sleepers?

Remember, owners have access to the same information.  With a few exceptions, everyone is eyeing a similar player pool.

The question of value for the selection should be the main consideration.  Sleepers are generally regarded as middle to late round picks with high upside.  Drafting a sleeper too early will defeat the purpose.  Also, more sleepers may be acquired through the waiver wire AFTER the season has begun. 

Dividing Sleepers into several categories will help owners identify the areas to receive the appropriate value for a sleeper selection.

*Top Prospects – Majors

Top prospects are highly touted players on the Major League roster who many expect to make an immediate impact.  Sometimes, you see these rookies initially struggle after being thrust into an everyday role. As the season progresses, patient owners can be rewarded with an everyday mixed league starter.  The asking price tends to be high compared to other sleepers since they are well-known.

2007- Troy Tulowitski, Dustin Pedroia, Chris Young

2008- Joba Chamberlain, Joey Votto, Adam Jones

*Other Prospects – Majors

These players are considered second-level prospects, not as highly discussed as the top-tier rookies.  However, this serves as one of the best sources to identify potential sleepers.  Everyone may bid up a top prospect to the point that the relative value is lost.  Therefore, some other prospects may be worthy of a sleeper pick, especially if increased playing time is on the horizon.

2007-Ryan Theriot, Mark Reynolds

2008- Fred Lewis, Jonathan Sanchez

*Top Prospects - Minors

Some top prospects fail to make the Opening Day roster, but are quickly called to duty.  Savvy owners can’t afford to lose track of these players and need to keep up on their potential recall.

2007- Ryan Braun, Hunter Pence, Tim Lincecum

2008- Evan Longoria, Jay Bruce, Cameron Maybin

*Former Prospects & Sleepers

Sometimes, players just don’t live up to the hype and meet expectations, at least when fantasy owners want them to.  Often, players take time to mature and can have their development slowed for a number of different reasons.  It’s still worth a look to find a gem. 

2007- Rick Ankiel, Jeremy Hermida

2008- Edwin Encarnacion, Jeremy Hermida

*Injured Players

Sleepers also include once productive players who fell victim to injury.  If fully healthy, they may not regain their previous form, but can return to being a fantasy producer.  Although these players may require a higher draft pick because they are a known commodity, some owners will be hesitant to pull the trigger for fear of an injury relapse.

2007- Derreck Lee, Gary Sheffield

2008- Nick Johnson, Pedro Martinez,

*New Starters

Players who now have a starting position or a dramatic increase in playing time provide a valuable resource for sleeper potential.  Again, most focus on the top prospects & returning veterans, while mid-level major leaguers slip through the cracks.

2007- Shane Victorino

2008-Michael Bourn

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