The hottest name swirling around Major League trade circles is Cliff Lee.  To mixed leaguers, this is somewhat of a non-event.  But for those playing in “strict” A.L.-only leagues (where they lose Lee if he is traded to the N.L.) find themselves in a bit of a dilemma.  They likely saw a fellow owner lose Lee last year when he was traded from Cleveland to Philadelphia, so they might be thinking, “Should I trade Lee now and avoid the trade deadline jitters or take the chance and hope he stays in the American League?”

It all depends on value.

If you can garner an appropriate package for Lee’s services, I would treat it just like any other trade.  But, trading a player just because there is a “chance” he will be shipped to another league could be a disaster.

Let’s take a look at a case study concerning Alfonso Soriano’s 2006 campaign.  Soriano played in Washington that year and posted his best Major League season - .277-119-46-95-41.  Since the 71 win & 91 loss Nats never had hopes of contending that year, he was constantly mentioned in trade rumors.  Also, he was becoming a free agent and Texas traded him just a year before, so there was a good chance he would be playing elsewhere by season’s end.

Here’s the problem – it didn’t happen.  He stayed in Washington for the entire year and subsequently left for the Cubs via free agency.

One particular NL-only owner, let’s call him “Norm”, was enjoying the fruits of Soriano’s labor but was also deathly afraid of losing him.  He had a “slight” need at second base and decided to trade another owner, let’s call him “Justin”, Alfonso Soriano for Rickie Weeks – straight up.

That’s right; “Norm” panicked and gave up a 40-40 player for a guy who suffered a season-ending injury literally days after the deal was struck.  Even if Weeks managed to stay healthy, it would have been very unlikely for him to hit Soriano’s lofty totals.  Although the trade was extremely one-sided, it was deemed appropriate because Soriano could have been lost to the AL for the remainder of the year. 

As you can imagine, Soriano’s 11 HR August helped Justin win his first and only championship in the 20-year league history, while Norm has yet to win the big one.

If you are considering trading Cliff Lee because you might lose him to the NL, squeeze every bit of value and don’t sell for 50 cents on the dollar.  Use the Soriano example and the fact that more A.L. teams are in the hunt to help drive up the price – he’s simply too good to give away.