1 Tim Lincecum - SF
Two full years = Two Cy Young
Awards. What else can you say? Last year, he made a nice leap in
efficiency by lowering his ERA, earned runs, homeruns, hits allowed, and walks
allowed totals. Lincecum was absolutely
overpowering at home posting a 1.88 ERA and 1.01 WHIP and the Giants should be
able to provide a little more run support this season. Lincecum had some off-field trouble after
being cited for marijuana possession (he’s from Seattle, plays in San
Francisco, and, look at the hair, we’re not shocked or worried.) His 5-11, 170 pound frame undergoes a
tremendous amount of torque during his delivery and a slight dip in velocity
has been documented. However, Lincecum
has constantly proved doubters wrong over his career, so we think he can
continue dominating the opposition in 2010.
2 Roy Halladay - PHI
The Blue Jays finally pulled
the trigger and sent Halladay to Philadelphia as the centerpiece of a
blockbuster deal. The move to a
hitter-friendly ballpark will be offset by not having to face a DH and
less-dangerous hitters – not to mention a more powerful lineup behind him. He’s pitched a ton of innings over his
career -220+ IP in 4 consecutive seasons plus 9 complete games for the second
year in a row. He did experience some
back problems last year, but we’re quite confident he will hold up for the
foreseeable future.
3 Felix Hernandez - SEA
The King produced a breakout
season going 19-5 with a 2.49 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 217 Ks. He plays in pitcher’s park, but oddly had a
3.09 ERA & 1.24 WHIP at home vs. a 1.99 ERA 1.04 WHIP on the road. Hey, all the better. He was rewarded with a large contract
extension during the off season, so let’s hope he maintains motivation and
turns in another Cy Young worthy season.
4 CC Sabathia - NYY
The move to New York didn’t
cause Sabathia to miss a beat. He
equaled a career-high 19 wins and just missed out on 200 Ks landing at
197. The only noticeable flaw was the
67 walks allowed, his highest mark since 2002.
He often faces predominately right handed lineups, so the New Yankee
Stadium effect didn’t seem to bother him at all. Sabathia pitched better at home 14-5, 3.17 ERA compared to a 3.53
ERA on the road. If he’s able to crank
out 230-250 innings, he’ll have another decent shot at the 20-win mark.
5 Zack Greinke - KC
Greinke started off last
season pitching 29 scoreless innings over the first 4 games and rode the
momentum all the way to winning the A.L. Cy Young Award. Even though he plays in Kansas City, he
produced a quality stat line: 16-8, 2.16 ERA, 242 Ks, 51 BB, and a 1.07
WHIP. The social anxiety disorder seems
to be under control, but it will always cause some concern over relapse. Nevertheless, Greinke’s pitching repertoire
warrants top-5 fantasy starter status.
6 Dan Haren - ARI
The 14-10 record doesn’t
accurately reflect Haren’s value. He
finished with an outstanding 1.00 WHIP struck out 200+ batters second season in
a row. As we’ve come to expect, Haren
was rock solid before the All Star Break but stumbled in the second half –
going 5-5 with a 4.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and .267 BAA. Even with the unfavorable splits, he’s still a top-10 pitcher
overall.
7 Justin Verlander - DET
Verlander stumbled out of the
gate last year, but finished with career-best marks in IP, wins, ERA,
strikeouts, and WHIP. True, his stat
line from 2008 sticks out like a sore thumb, but there had to be some injury
and/or mechanical problem that was never fully disclosed. We’re willing to treat it as an anomaly and
believe Verlander can win another 16-18 games with an ERA around 3.50-3.70 and
200+ strikeout potential.
8 Adam Wainwright - STL
After injuries limited him to
20 starts in 2008, Wainwright bounced back with a Cy Young caliber season.
He finished at 19-8 with a
2.63 ERA and 1.21 WHIP while seeing his K/9 ratio spike to 8.2. He doesn’t work late into games (although
he’s a lock for 6 IP) and he’s not a flamethrower (fastball averages 90.4 MPH),
but Wainwright’s consistency will allow him to anchor a fantasy staff.
9 Josh Beckett - BOS
After a series of injuries,
Beckett proved his durability by averaging 207 innings pitched over the past
three years. Despite Fenway Park’s
hitter friendly reputation, he’s much more comfortable at home posting a 3.59
ERA / 1.08 WHIP against a 4.13 ERA and 1.31 WHIP on the road. Beckett has fallen below the 15-win mark
only one time since 2005 and he’s never had a WHIP above 1.32. His K/9 ratio is 8.7 over the past 3 seasons
and he’s in a contract year, so expect Beckett to make an all out push to be
the most coveted free agent on the market.
10 Jon Lester - BOS
Even though he fell short on
his win and ERA totals from 2008, you have to take some perspective into
account. Last year, Lester’s strikeout
total spiked from 152 to 225 and he gave up less hits and walked fewer batters
than he did in 2008. If he would have
allowed 5 less runs, his ERA would have been the same. Not so bad at all – and not that bad of a
selection if you miss out on some of the bigger names.