1 Ryan J. Braun - MIL
The
2009 season was the first year where Braun didn’t carryover 3B eligibility, but
it didn't hurt his fantasy value whatsoever.
Over three seasons, he’s averaged 34 HRs /106 RBI/ 16 SBs while batting
.308. His offensive output is very
valuable - he should be selected in the first round.
2 Carl Crawford - TB
After
being limited to 109 games in 2008, Crawford went .305-96-15-68-60 during a
full 2009 campaign. He only stole 16
bases after the All Star Break, but we believe he can be consistent this year
and swipe at least 45-50 bags. He’s
entering a contract year, so expect Crawford to make a gigantic salary drive
this season.
3 Matt Kemp - LAD
Other
than 1 less SB, Kemp showed improvement across the board in his 2nd
full year. He increased his homerun
total by 8 and knocked in an extra 25 RBI while landing at a .297 AVE. We’d like to see him get settled in a
predictable spot in the lineup (he had at least 75 ABs in the slots 4 through
8). A 30-30 line is well within reach,
so consider him with a top-20 draft selection.
4 Jacoby Ellsbury - BOS
After
stealing 50 bases as a rookie, Ellsbury led the league with 70 swipes in his
second season. He walked more and
struck out less, helping increase his OBP from .336 to .355. He’s not a
contributor in power categories (it’d be nice if he could knock out 10 HRs), so
we’re always a little worried about any leg issues sapping his value. If he stays healthy, Ellsbury can certainly
score 90-100 runs and repeat with another 50-60 SBs.
5 Matt Holliday - STL
Once
Holliday left Oakland and the American League behind, he looked like his old
self. He exploded, batting .353 with 13
HRs and 55 RBI over the last two months of the season. He won’t maintain such lofty numbers, but he
should continue to thrive hitting behind Albert Pujols.
6 Justin Upton - ARI
Even
though a strained oblique limited him to 138 games, the younger Upton brother
posted a breakout season finishing at .300-84-26-86-20. He strikes out quite often, but has
maintained a respectable OBP for the past 2 years (.353 and .366). If he turns in a full season, owners should
anticipate growth over last year’s numbers.
7 Grady Sizemore - CLE
A
variety of injuries slowed Sizemore last year causing him to play in only 106
games and finish well below his career norms (.248-73-18-64-13). His declining average before last season is
a little troubling, but he can still hit in the .270-.280 range. A full return to health will result in
another 20-20 season with a threat to crack 30-30.
8 Jason Bay - NYM
After
a career-high 36 HRs, Bay landed a 5-year contract to man left field for the
Mets. Citi Field is nowhere near as
hitter-friendly as Fenway Park, but Bay did mange to hit 21 HRs on the road
last season. His .267 average last year
was the second lowest of his career, but we think he’s a good bet to hit .280
with 25-30 HRs, 100 RBIs, and double-digit stolen bases.
9 Curtis Granderson - NYY
Granderson’s
average declined from .302 in 2007 to .280 in 2008, but fell off a cliff last
year to land at .249. He batted a
pitiful .183 BA against lefties, but he was still able to hit a career-high 30
HRs.
Playing
half of his games in new Yankee stadium will help, but he’s got to improve
against southpaws before you can bump him into the upper echelon of fantasy
outfielders.
10 Nick Markakis - BAL
Markakis’
slip in production really doesn’t make sense.
He played in 161 games, so there was no apparent injury. It just doesn’t make sense. His number-10 ranking is risky to say the
least. You might be paying a high price
for a mediocre outfielder or land a top-tier player who hits .300-20-100-20.